Can Connor Bedard Hit a 100-Point Pace in 2026-27?

The start of the 2025-26 season surprised not just Chicago Blackhawks fans, but fans across the NHL. The Hawks were off to a hot start, and by the end of November, they were still in a playoff spot with an 11-9-5 record. It was a good look for new head coach Jeff Blashill. Chicago was playing fun hockey with new young players. But most impressive was Connor Bedard.

Bedard was among the league leaders in scoring, on track for 116 points by December. The next generation of NHL stars was making a splash. Leo Carlsson was tied for fourth in scoring in the NHL with 36 points, Macklin Celebrini was on his way to earning a spot on Team Canada's roster, and Bedard was among the league leaders in scoring (including Celebrini).

Then December 12, 2025 happened.

As a game against the St. Louis Blues was finishing, Bedard injured his shoulder while taking a defensive zone face-off. He missed 12 games, and the Blackhawks lost their early-season mojo, going 5-7-2 in December. But when Connor returned to the lineup, he just wasn't the same—he went from going on pace for 116 points to 63 points.

Over the 2026 offseason, Bedard injured his other shoulder on July 2 during a practice session in Vancouver. A couple of weeks later, Bedard signed a five-year deal with a $15 million AAV—even after the Leo Carlsson offer sheet debacle, which shattered the market.

Bedard finished the 2025-26 campaign with 30 goals and 75 points in 69 games. Across three seasons, Bedard has 203 points in 219 games.

Chicago will be without their newest captain to start the season. But when Connor Bedard returns, will he be able to score at the same 100+ point rate that we saw early in the 2025 season?

How Connor Bedard created offense for the Chicago Blackhawks

What Connor Bedard has been able to accomplish in Chicago has been incredibly impressive considering the lack of support. By the midpoint of the 2024-25 season, Bedard had 36 different line combinations through 57 games. Bedard hasn't had elite talent on his line, yet despite that, Bedard creates offense and elevates those around him. Both Philipp Kurashev (54 points, 75 games in 2023-24) and Ryan Donato (62 points, 80 games in 2024-25) had career years when they spent a significant amount of time with Bedard. This lack of talent also made it incredibly easy for teams to shut him down.

While Bedard was drafted with a deadly wrist shot—still one of the best in the league—it's his playmaking, passing, and entries that create the foundation of his offense.

Through his first two seasons, Bedard tried to create a lot of plays for his teammates. Too often, Bedard deferred to his linemates and set players up who just didn't see the game to the same level as Bedard. He was in the 75th and 90th percentile in primary assists during those first two years. But Bedard was somewhat a casualty of his inability to play a little more selfishly.

After a disappointing 2024-25 season (where he still put up 67 points in 82 games on a historically bad Blackhawks team), Bedard targeted his skating mechanics during the offseason. The work paid dividends.

In 2025-26, Bedard was in the 99th percentile in offensive zone entries and in the 88th percentile in speed. And it's his speed and ability to manipulate space that made him so deadly on the rush.

Connor Bedard's shots per 60 also saw a notable increase. In 2024-25, he was shooting at a 7.03 shots-per-60 rate in all situations—down from 9.19 in his rookie season. Last year, Bedard was shooting 9.42 shots per 60. The quality of his shots increased too. In 2024-25, Bedard's unblocked shot attempt rate was 10.17 per 60—last season it was 14.01.

Bedard learned to play a little more selfishly and create offense for himself. But it's not as if Bedard didn't create plays for other teammates. He finished last season with a career-high 97th percentile in primary assists.

While not a top-line center, Ryan Greene benefited from Bedard's playmaking. Greene is a highly intelligent hockey player and was able to read Bedard's playmaking. Outside of Andre Burakovsky, Greene was Bedard's most consistent linemate. Together at 5-on-5, they were on the ice for 3.21 goals per 60. Greene without Bedard was on the ice for 1.66 goals per 60. The reason why Greene didn't see a "career year" like Kurashev or Donato was that this was Greene's first full season. He also just isn't finished. Despite numerous scoring chances (an individual expected goals of 16.16), he finished with 12 goals.

Regardless, Bedard played a more selfish game and still made teammates around him better.

Can Bedard be on pace for over 100 points this season?

When Connor Bedard returned to the lineup on January 9, Chicago was in the midst of a losing slump that only worsened as the season wore on. Blashill elected to keep Andre Burakovsky, who arguably hurt Bedard's offensive metrics. But most concerning was that Bedard didn't look the same, and he only missed 12 games.

While I wouldn't call it a slump for Bedard, others on the team weren't pulling their weight. Frank Nazar went 34 games with only 11 points. At the time, Nazar was arguably the second-best offensive player on the roster, and that was as an unproven commodity who hadn't even played a full NHL season yet. Andre Burakovsky was kept on the top line to the point of near-stubbornness. He finished the season with 12 goals and 36 points in 75 games.

While Jeff Blashill employed more conservative tactics as the season wore on (moving from a 2-1-2 forecheck to a 1-2-2 and shelling up in the defensive zone to protect small leads), coaching tactics can't be blamed for Bedard's lackluster second half of the 2025-26 season. Bedard was still mostly given free rein to create as he saw fit. His individual expected goals per 60 only dropped from 1.11 to 1.09. We already saw what constricted coaching looks like with Bedard, and that's what got Luke Richardson fired in 2024.

Bedard is projected to return to the lineup in November. That places estimates of about 72 games played, and projections have Bedard scoring roughly 81 points. That's about a 1.12 points-per-game pace, and over the new 84-game schedule, that's just shy of 100 points, with 94. To score at a rate of over 100 points would be a remarkable feat. But it's well within the realm of possibility.

For the first time in Bedard's NHL career, he had capable linemates. Roman Kantserov, while technically an unknown, has hopes of being a top-six winger. Nick Lardis could have a breakout season on the top six. Patrick Kane, while 37 going on 38, still has an impact on offense (73rd percentile in offense last season). Anton Frondell only has 12 games under his belt, but the hopes are that he becomes a top-six forward. Frank Nazar (who's likely centering his own line) has expectations of having a consistent season in terms of scoring. While there are a whole lot of questions, the potential for improved offense is there.

And those are the forwards. The blueline has potential for help, too.

While offensive-minded defensemen Sam Rinzel and Artyom Levshunov (you can add Kevin Korchinski once he develops) are still learning, they both played excellent hockey with Bedard last season. Levshunov in particular created dangerous looks with Connor.

And now there's Bowen Byram.

While most fans would have liked Kyle Davidson to grab a more established young winger for Bedard, Davidson placed his bets on Kantserov and identified a need for a No. 1 defenseman. Sure, Byram still needs to prove he is capable of that role, despite already receiving the paycheck. And his defense needs work (a responsibility of a No. 1 d-man). But the offense Byram creates is real—he was in the 90th percentile in goals. With a wicked shot, he could be the recipient of many Bedard passes.

All Bedard needs to do is continue to play a little more selfishly, but doing so won't risk him getting swarmed by the opponent's defense. They'll have to worry about other players on the ice, and if they do double up on Bedard, he might have a teammate who can see the ice as Bedard does.

The tools for success are there for Bedard to have an incredible comeback, and Blackhawks fans should be excited for his return. While a lot has to hit with those young forwards, I have no doubt that we'll see Bedard score at a torrid pace this season.

Stats are from Natural Stat Trick, HockeyStats, and AllThreeZones.